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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Team Interest Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test side being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a much more significant change with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Future Unclear

The back half of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change a-coming, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.